An Inner-Inter City Graph Neural Network for Predicting the Course of COVID-19 Cases (preprint)

Highly infectious diseases, for instance, the recent novel corona virus pandemic (COVID-19) have impacted millions of lives in the globe. From its early stage, it's clear that its transmission is closely related to the crowd mobility. However, research on the predictive power of city level mobility is lacking. To fill this gap, in this paper, we propose the Inner-Inter city Learner (IIL), a method based on the high correlation between human interaction and the new cases, to conduct short and midterm predictions of the COVID-19 cases at a city level. In term of design, IIL is composed of two main components: an inter city transmission learner and an inner city propagation pattern learner. In the first module, we specially generate graphs based on the mobility between cities. Using graph neural networks fed with the city level mobility graphs, the model learns how the transmission pattern in a city is impacted by its neighborhood cities. And in the second part, capitalizing in the highly contagious nature of the virus, we use the human interactions within the cities to capture the invariant features that directly correlate with the spread. In addition, to account for the limited inner mobility data, we employed the model agnostic meta learning to transfer the features common to all cities. We conduct various experiments and compare our methods with the state-of-art baselines. The results show the superiority of our method in various forecast horizons.

Web Resources for SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Database, Annotation, Analysis and Variant Tracking.

The SARS-CoV-2 genomic data continue to grow, providing valuable information for researchers and public health officials. Genomic analysis of these data sheds light on the transmission and evolution of the virus. To aid in SARS-CoV-2 genomic analysis, many web resources have been developed to store, collate, analyze, and visualize the genomic data. This review summarizes web resources used for the SARS-CoV-2 genomic epidemiology, covering data management and sharing, genomic annotation, analysis, and variant tracking. The challenges and further expectations for these web resources are also discussed. Finally, we highlight the importance and need for continued development and improvement of related web resources to effectively track the spread and understand the evolution of the virus.

Genomic evidence for divergent co-infections of co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages.

Co-infection of RNA viruses may contribute to their recombination and cause severe clinical symptoms. However, the tracking and identification of SARS-CoV-2 co-infection persist as challenges. Due to the lack of methods for detecting co-infected samples in a large amount of deep sequencing data, the lineage composition, spatial-temporal distribution, and frequency of SARS-CoV-2 co-infection events in the population remains unclear. Here, we propose a hypergeometric distribution-based method named Cov2Coinfect with the ability to decode the lineage composition from 50,809 deep sequencing data. By resolving the mutational patterns in each sample, Cov2Coinfect can precisely determine the co-infected SARS-CoV-2 variants from deep sequencing data. Results from two independent and parallel projects in the United States achieved a similar co-infection rate of 0.3-0.5 % in SARS-CoV-2 positive samples. Notably, all co-infected variants were highly consistent with the co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the regional epidemiology, demonstrating that the co-circulation of different variants is an essential prerequisite for co-infection. Overall, our study not only provides a robust method to identify the co-infected SARS-CoV-2 variants from sequencing samples, but also highlights the urgent need to pay more attention to co-infected patients for better disease prevention and control.

Changes in endemic patterns of respiratory syncytial virus infection in pediatric patients under the pressure of nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 in Beijing, China.

A series of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) was launched in Beijing, China, on January 24, 2020, to control coronavirus disease 2019. To reveal the roles of NPIs on the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), respiratory specimens collected from children with acute respiratory tract infection between July 2017 and Dec 2021 in Beijing were screened by capillary electrophoresis-based multiplex PCR (CEMP) assay. Specimens positive for RSV were subjected to a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and genotyped by G gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis using iqtree v1.6.12. The parallel and fixed (paraFix) mutations were analyzed with the R package sitePath. Clinical data were compared using SPSS 22.0 software. Before NPIs launched, each RSV endemic season started from October/November to February/March of the next year in Beijing. After that, the RSV positive rate abruptly dropped from 31.93% in January to 4.39% in February 2020; then, a dormant state with RSV positive rates ≤1% from March to September, a nearly dormant state in October (2.85%) and November (2.98%) and a delayed endemic season in 2020, and abnormal RSV positive rates remaining at approximately 10% in summer until September 2021 were detected. Finally, an endemic RSV season returned in October 2021. There was a game between Subtypes A and B, and RSV-A replaced RSV-B in July 2021 to become the dominant subtype. Six RSV-A and eight RSV-B paraFix mutations were identified on G. The percentage of severe pneumonia patients decreased to 40.51% after NPIs launched. NPIs launched in Beijing seriously interfered with the endemic season of RSV.

covSampler: A subsampling method with balanced genetic diversity for large-scale SARS-CoV-2 genome data sets.

Phylogenetic analysis has been widely used to describe, display, and infer the evolutionary patterns of viruses. The unprecedented accumulation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes has provided valuable materials for the real-time study of SARS-CoV-2 evolution. However, the large number of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences also poses great challenges for data analysis. Several methods for subsampling these large data sets have been introduced. However, current methods mainly focus on the spatiotemporal distribution of genomes without considering their genetic diversity, which might lead to post-subsampling bias. In this study, a subsampling method named covSampler was developed for the subsampling of SARS-CoV-2 genomes with consideration of both their spatiotemporal distribution and their genetic diversity. First, covSampler clusters all genomes according to their spatiotemporal distribution and genetic variation into groups that we call divergent pathways. Then, based on these divergent pathways, two kinds of subsampling strategies, representative subsampling and comprehensive subsampling, were provided with adjustable parameters to meet different users' requirements. Our performance and validation tests indicate that covSampler is efficient and stable, with an abundance of options for user customization. Overall, our work has developed an easy-to-use tool and a webserver (https://www.covsampler.net) for the subsampling of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences.

covSampler: A Subsampling Method with Balanced Genetic Diversity for Large-Scale SARS-CoV-2 Genome Data Sets

Phylogenetic analysis has been widely used to describe, display and infer the evolutionary patterns of viruses. The unprecedented accumulation of SARS-CoV-2 genomes has provided valuable materials for the real-time study of SARS-CoV-2 evolution. However, the large number of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences also poses great challenges for data analysis. Several methods for subsampling these large data sets have been introduced. However, current methods mainly focus on the spatiotemporal distribution of genomes without considering their genetic diversity, which might lead to postsubsampling bias. In this study, a subsampling method named covSampler was developed for the subsampling of SARS-CoV-2 genomes with consideration of both their spatiotemporal distribution and their genetic diversity. First, covSampler clusters all genomes according to their spatiotemporal distribution and genetic variation into groups that we call divergent pathways. Then, based on these divergent pathways, two kinds of subsampling strategies, representative subsampling and comprehensive subsampling, were provided with adjustable parameters to meet different users’ requirements. Our performance and validation tests indicate that covSampler is efficient and stable, with an abundance of options for user customization. Overall, our work has developed an easy-to-use tool and a webserver (https://www.covsampler.net) for the subsampling of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences.

Potential intervariant and intravariant recombination of Delta and Omicron variants.

Among numerous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concerns, Omicron is more infectious and immune-escaping, while Delta is more pathogenic. Here, we provide evidence for both intervariant and intravariant recombination of the rapidly evolving new SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including XD/XE/XF and BA.3, raising concerns of potential more infectious, immune-escaping, and disease-causing Omicron and Delta-Omicron variants.

5-Hydroxymethylcytosine Signatures in Circulating Cell-Free DNA as Early Warning Biomarkers for COVID-19 Progression and Myocardial Injury.

Background: The symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) range from moderate to critical conditions, leading to death in some patients, and the early warning indicators of the COVID-19 progression and the occurrence of its serious complications such as myocardial injury are limited. Methods: We carried out a multi-center, prospective cohort study in three hospitals in Wuhan. Genome-wide 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5hmC) profiles in plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) was used to identify risk factors for COVID-19 pneumonia and develop a machine learning model using samples from 53 healthy volunteers, 66 patients with moderate COVID-19, 99 patients with severe COVID-19, and 38 patients with critical COVID-19. Results: Our warning model demonstrated that an area under the curve (AUC) for 5hmC warning moderate patients developed into severe status was 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.85) and for severe patients developed into critical status was 0.92 (95% CI 0.89-0.96). We further built a warning model on patients with and without myocardial injury with the AUC of 0.89 (95% CI 0.84-0.95). Conclusion: This is the first study showing the utility of 5hmC as an accurate early warning marker for disease progression and myocardial injury in patients with COVID-19. Our results show that phosphodiesterase 4D and ten-eleven translocation 2 may be important markers in the progression of COVID-19 disease.

Detecting Potentially Adaptive Mutations from the Parallel and Fixed Patterns in SARS-CoV-2 Evolution.

Early identification of adaptive mutations could provide timely help for the control and prevention of the COVID-19 pandemic. The fast accumulation of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data provides important support, while also raising a great challenge for the recognition of adaptive mutations. Here, we proposed a computational strategy to detect potentially adaptive mutations from their fixed and parallel patterns in the phylogenetic trajectory. We found that the biological meanings of fixed substitution and parallel mutation are highly complementary, and can reasonably be integrated as a fixed and parallel (paraFix) mutation, to identify potentially adaptive mutations. Tracking the dynamic evolution of SARS-CoV-2, 37 sites in spike protein were identified as having experienced paraFix mutations. Interestingly, 70% (26/37) of them have already been experimentally confirmed as adaptive mutations. Moreover, most of the mutations could be inferred as paraFix mutations one month earlier than when they became regionally dominant. Overall, we believe that the concept of paraFix mutations will help researchers to identify potentially adaptive mutations quickly and accurately, which will provide invaluable clues for disease control and prevention.

SARS-CoV-2 Continuous Genetic Divergence and Changes in Multiplex RT-PCR Detection Pattern on Positive Retesting Median 150 Days after Initial Infection.

Being in the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, our lab tested 193,054 specimens for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by diagnostic multiplex reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (mRT-PCR) starting in March 2020, of which 17,196 specimens resulted positive. To investigate the dynamics of virus molecular evolution and epidemiology, whole genome amplification (WGA) and Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) were performed on 9516 isolates. 7586 isolates with a high quality were further analyzed for the mutation frequency and spectrum. Lastly, we evaluated the utility of the mRT-PCR detection pattern among 26 reinfected patients with repeat positive testing three months after testing negative from the initial infection. Our results show a continuation of the genetic divergence in viral genomes. Furthermore, our results indicate that independent mutations in the primer and probe regions of the nucleocapsid gene amplicon and envelope gene amplicon accumulate over time. Some of these mutations correlate with the changes of detection pattern of viral targets of mRT-PCR. Our data highlight the significance of a continuous genetic divergence on a gene amplification-based assay, the value of the mRT-PCR detection pattern for complementing the clinical diagnosis of reinfection, and the potential for WGA and NGS to identify mutation hotspots throughout the entire viral genome to optimize the design of the PCR-based gene amplification assay.

Detecting Potentially Adaptive Mutations from the Parallel and Fixed Patterns in SARS-CoV-2 Evolution

Early identification of adaptive mutations could provide timely help for the control and prevention of the COVID-19 pandemic. The fast accumulation of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data provides important support, while also raising a great challenge for the recognition of adaptive mutations. Here, we proposed a computational strategy to detect potentially adaptive mutations from their fixed and parallel patterns in the phylogenetic trajectory. We found that the biological meanings of fixed substitution and parallel mutation are highly complementary, and can reasonably be integrated as a fixed and parallel (paraFix) mutation, to identify potentially adaptive mutations. Tracking the dynamic evolution of SARS-CoV-2, 37 sites in spike protein were identified as having experienced paraFix mutations. Interestingly, 70% (26/37) of them have already been experimentally confirmed as adaptive mutations. Moreover, most of the mutations could be inferred as paraFix mutations one month earlier than when they became regionally dominant. Overall, we believe that the concept of paraFix mutations will help researchers to identify potentially adaptive mutations quickly and accurately, which will provide invaluable clues for disease control and prevention.

Preclinical evaluation of RQ3013, a broad-spectrum mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 variants (preprint)

The global emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants has led to increasing breakthrough infections in vaccinated populations, calling for an urgent need to develop more effective and broad-spectrum vaccines to combat COVID-19. Here we report the preclinical development of RQ3013, an mRNA vaccine candidate intended to bring broad protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs). RQ3013, which contains pseudouridine-modified mRNAs formulated in lipid nanoparticles, encodes the spike(S) protein harboring a combination of mutations responsible for immune evasion of VOCs. Here we characterized the expressed S immunogen and evaluated the immunogenicity, efficacy, and safety of RQ3013 in various animal models. RQ3013 elicited robust immune responses in mice, hamsters, and nonhuman primates (NHP). It can induce high titers of antibodies with broad cross-neutralizing ability against the Wild-type, B.1.1.7, B.1.351, B.1.617.2, and the omicron B.1.1.529 variants. In mice and NHP, two doses of RQ3013 protected the upper and lower respiratory tract against infection by SARS-CoV-2 and its variants. We also proved the safety of RQ3013 in NHP models. Our results provided key support for the evaluation of RQ3013 in clinical trials.

Rare disasters, exchange rates, and macroeconomic policy: Evidence from COVID-19☆

The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has had a dramatic effect on financial markets worldwide. This paper explores the association between rare disasters, macroeconomic policy, and the exchange rate, using COVID-19 as an example. Analysis of data from 27 advanced and emerging economies reveals a strong correlation between COVID-19 and time-varying risk premiums in the foreign exchange market. Moreover, the spread of COVID-19 significantly depreciates the domestic exchange rate in emerging markets, but not in advanced countries. During the COVID-19 crisis, expansionary fiscal policies and unconventional monetary policies led to an appreciation of local currencies. However, conventional expansionary monetary policies had the opposite effect, indicating that the traditional effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate takes precedence even in the event of a rare disaster.

Genomic evidence for divergent co-infections of SARS-CoV-2 lineages (preprint)

Recently, patients co-infected by two SARS-CoV-2 lineages have been sporadically reported. Concerns are raised because previous studies have demonstrated co-infection may contribute to the recombination of RNA viruses and cause severe clinic symptoms. In this study, we have estimated the compositional lineage(s), tendentiousness, and frequency of co-infection events in population from a large-scale genomic analysis for SARS-CoV-2 patients. SARS-CoV-2 lineage(s) infected in each sample have been recognized from the assignment of within-host site variations into lineage-defined feature variations by introducing a hypergeometric distribution method. Of all the 29,993 samples, 53 (~0.18%) co-infection events have been identified. Apart from 52 co-infections with two SARS-CoV-2 lineages, one sample with co-infections of three SARS-CoV-2 lineages was firstly identified. As expected, the co-infection events mainly happened in the regions where have co-existed more than two dominant SARS-CoV-2 lineages. However, co-infection of two sub-lineages in Delta lineage were detected as well. Our results provide a useful reference framework for the high throughput detecting of SARS-CoV-2 co-infection events in the Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) data. Although low in average rate, the co-infection events showed an increasing tendency with the increased diversity of SARS-CoV-2. And considering the large base of SARS-CoV-2 infections globally, co-infected patients would be a nonnegligible population. Thus, more clinical research is urgently needed on these patients.

One year of SARS-CoV-2 evolution.

Since the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, the etiologic agent of the COVID-19 pandemic, the viral genome has acquired numerous mutations with the potential to increase transmission. One year after its emergence, we now further analyze emergent SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences in an effort to understand the evolution of this virus.

The m6A methylome of SARS-CoV-2 in host cells.

The newly identified Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in a global health emergency because of its rapid spread and high mortality. The molecular mechanism of interaction between host and viral genomic RNA is yet unclear. We demonstrate herein that SARS-CoV-2 genomic RNA, as well as the negative-sense RNA, is dynamically N6-methyladenosine (m6A)-modified in human and monkey cells. Combined RIP-seq and miCLIP analyses identified a total of 8 m6A sites at single-base resolution in the genome. Especially, epidemic strains with mutations at these identified m6A sites have emerged worldwide, and formed a unique cluster in the US as indicated by phylogenetic analysis. Further functional experiments showed that m6A methylation negatively regulates SARS-CoV-2 infection. SARS-CoV-2 infection also triggered a global increase in host m6A methylome, exhibiting altered localization and motifs of m6A methylation in mRNAs. Altogether, our results identify m6A as a dynamic epitranscriptomic mark mediating the virus-host interaction.